2020 Fantasy Football Busts: ‘Do Not Draft’ list of top overrated players by ADP

There are players in fantasy football in 2020 you absolutely want on all of your teams, if possible. Unfortunately,  there are plenty of other players to put on the “Do Not Draft” portion of your cheat sheet. Maybe it’s because they’re too high in the rankings and represent bad value, or maybe it’s because they’re likely to just be flat-out busts no matter where you select them — either way, overrated players are potential hazards at all points in your draft.

Using half-point points per reception (PPR) as our scoring format to split the difference between standard and full PPR leagues, here are the players you want to avoid in your fantasy football drafts based on where they’re currently being selected according to Fantasy Pros’ average draft position (ADP).

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2020 cheat sheet

2020 Overrated Fantasy QBs

Josh Allen, Bills (ADP: 67)

Allen is going in the middle of QB1s after finishing as QB6 last season. That presumes he will keep up his scoring, getting a boost from Stefon Diggs. But there’s a sense he’s near his ceiling vs. just getting off his floor. Much of Allen’s value is tied to his rushing, which is bound to regress with more receiving and rushing pop around him. There are better options to be had later.

Drew Brees, Saints (ADP: 71)

Brees ended up averaging the eighth-most points at the position after missing five games with his right thumb injury last season. He’s solid, but like Allen, he’s a forced mid-tier pick at the position who has probably capped his production and doesn’t feel spectacular. That’s enough to pass on him and keep waiting at QB.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (ADP: 85)

Rodgers averaged the 14th-most QB points in 2019 and didn’t see his receiving corps get better while seeing his offensive line get worse. He remains in a strong running offense under Matt LaFleur. His big name is inflating his numbers game. The days of Rodgers being a reliable every-week QB1 are finished with so many older and younger QBs better positioned to put up more pleasing all-around digits.

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Daniel Jones, Giants (ADP: 135)

Jones has a tough schedule that includes the AFC North and NFC West. He’s also going to a more conservative offensive coordinator in Year 2, Jason Garrett, who will be more about ball control and running Saquon Barkley vs. getting wide-open throwing all over the field. It’s more appealing to take Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield around the same range or a little earlier.

Jared Goff, Rams (ADP: 148)

Goff isn’t an inspiring pick for a Rams’ offense in transition without Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley. He is durable and a decent QB2, but there is little upside attached to taking him anywhere in your drafts.

Sam Darnold, Jets (ADP: 195)

Darnold saw the team add Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims at wide receiver and should at least have mono well out of his system. But do you really want to trust a QB at the controls of Adam Gase’s offense to be more than a streamer? Darnold has the look of putting it together as a pro, but you can be much more inspired with your QB2 as neither his floor nor his ceiling has much appeal.

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2020 Overrated Fantasy RBs

Aaron Jones, Packers (ADP: 22)

Jones won’t be scoring 19 touchdowns again, and rookie AJ Dillon is also there to cut into his work along with Jamaal Williams. Jones should be considered more of a middle RB2 than a back-end RB1.

Todd Gurley, Falcons (ADP: 29)

Gurley saved his production with big scoring during his final season with the Rams. Now he goes to a Dirk Koetter offense with questionable rushing upside. He also has those lingering knee issues and carries even more wear and tear than going into 2019. With limited upside, Gurley is a low-end RB2 at best.

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Melvin Gordon, Broncos (ADP: 37)

Gordon got the free-agent deal he wanted and stays in the division, but after an initial sense he might be the workhorse in Denver, it’s clear he’s headed toward more of an Austin Ekeler-like situation with incumbent 1,000-yard rusher Phillip Lindsay in the spread-it-out version of the West Coast under new offfensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.

Le’Veon Bell, Jets (ADP: 44)

Bell was in the Fournette boat, not scoring or rushing all that well but salvaging his PPR RB2 value in 2019 with steady passing-game work. Whether Gase pretends to like him or not, Bell looks like he’s about to limp to his final season with the Jets wih limited afterburners.

Sony Michel, Patriots (ADP: 86)

He has a concerning foot injury and a history of durability issues. The team added Lamar Miller to Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead behind him, and James White is still there to eat up all the receiving work. Michel seems like a totally wasted pick in any round in 2020.

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Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (ADP: 87)

He is going much lower than where the industry is ranking him, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he suddenly won’t become a special NFL back for Bruce Arians. There’s also too much situationally behind Jones with LeSean McCoy signed to join Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Dare Ogunbowale to think he’s a worthy pick, even as a high-end RB3 or flex option.

Update: Jones’s value drops even further with the signing of Leonard Fournette.

Kerryon Johnson, Lions (ADP: 107)

He was on the “breakouts and steals” side of the ledger last season, only to disappoint with more knee injury issues. That prompted the team to use a second-round pick on more well-rounded and higher upside rookie D’Andre Swift. Even with Swift (leg) as the one being banged up in camp, Johnson is bound to fade into a limited role sooner rather than later.

Tevin Coleman, 49ers (ADP: 111)

He was frustrating last season because he had big flashes but little consistency working with Raheem Mostert. Matt Breida is gone, but it now looks like a healthy Jerick McKinnon will be legitimately in the backfield mix. Good luck squeezing out strong flex play at the right time from Coleman.

Adrian Peterson, Lions (ADP: 144)

Derrius Guice is gone, leaving us to scramble for the options for Scott Turner’s backfield. Peterson? Antonio Gibson? Peyton Barber? Bryce Love? Do we want to really invest in anyone here to find out in what will be a situational committee in the end for a low-upside offense?

UPDATE: Washington released Peterson, and he’ll start the year as a No. 3 back in Detroit. Gibson’s stock goes up.

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2020 Overrated Fantasy WRs

Adam Thielen, Vikings (ADP: 31)

Everyone seems to be hooked on a feeling that a healthy Thielen will go back to going fantasy boom, but we’re not high on believing that we’re in love with that. He’s also a wideout in his age-30 season with back and hamstring issues catching up to him in a run-heavy offense where he no longer has the luxury of consistently playing from his most comfortable spot in the slot.

Amari Cooper, Cowboys (ADP: 32)

Mike McCarthy thinks he might have three No. 1 wide receivers with Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb. Cooper tends to get inconsistent targets and can disappear in games. Gallup and Lamb can limit those looks from Dak Prescott, as Cooper will be the one still getting the top cornerback attention. Like Thielen, borderline WR1 looks like a shaky expectation.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos (ADP: 45)

Sutton is a legitimate top wideout, but the concern is high in a run-centric offense with Gordon and Lindsay and a passing game with a lot more mouths to feed all over the field at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. This is also indication that one should pump the brakes on Drew Lock’s Year 2 hype.

T.Y. Hilton, Colts (ADP: 62)

Hilton will turn 31 in November and has a concerning recent history of soft-tissue issues — on top of the worries about transitioning to a second new QB in as many years in Philip Rivers. The Colts also have young wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell carrying big upside in a run-heavy offense.

A.J. Green, Bengals (ADP: 69)

Green missed the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury. Now he’s a 32-year-old battling hamstring issues in camp. Joe Burrow’s arrival helps, but like Hilton, it’s hard to trust in a wideout with this aging profile.

Jarvis Landry, Browns (ADP: 74)

Landry is hoping to be healthy enough from hip surgery to suit up in Week 1. Beyond that injury concern, the Browns have multiple other short-to-intermediate options, led by Kareem Hunt and Austin Hooper, and Odell Beckham Jr. should finally operate like an outside No. 1 for Baker Mayfield. Landry is not worth a top-100 pick as a WR3.

Marquise Brown, Ravens (ADP: 77)

Brown is an exciting big-play threat, but the Ravens will have more of those deployed in 2020 with fellow young speedsters Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay. This also won’t suddenly become a more wide-open passing offense. Lamar Jackson will still take calculated deep shots while helming the league’s best rushing attack. That points to Brown being more of a matchup-based reserve vs. WR3.

John Brown, Bills (ADP: 98)

This Brown also will do less for you with the arrival of Diggs on a team with just 54 vacated targets. He drops to a WR4, at best.

Darius Slayton, Giants (ADP: 102)

Jones and this passing game doesn’t deserve too much investment beyond high-upside tight end Evan Engram and most complete wideout Sterling Shepard. Slayton did well with Shurmur as a rookie but Garrett’s play-calling will limit his juice in Year 2.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (ADP: 110)

File Jeudy under Sutton and not being sold on Lock passing at a prolific level all over the field quite yet. Jeudy has had a tougher offseason than the other first-round rookies and doesn’t have the same TD and big-play upside yet.

Mike Williams, Chargers (ADP: 125)

Williams went from big TDs to big plays and now must operate without Rivers where he’s fourth in the pecking order for Tyrod Taylor behind Keenan Allen, Ekeler, and Hunter Henry. The shoulder injury in camp zlxo isn’t inspiring for someone who has had durability issues.

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2020 Overrated Fantasy TEs

Zach Ertz, Eagles (ADP: 41)

Ertz turns 30 in November, and the wear is starting to build up on him. He’s also headed to sharing more of the work with Dallas Goedert and the Eagles’ deepening group of WRS. Ertz still is a viable TE1, but he’s no longer a no-brainer for the upper half.

Darren Waller, Raiders (ADP: 55)

The Raiders plan to use 12 and 13 personnel with multiple tight ends often, but there is simply a lot more competition for targets with rookies Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards tabbed for prominent immediate receiving roles with Josh Jacobs also being busier in the passing game. Like Ertz, it’s smart to pass on Waller with many better bang-for-the-buck guys available later.

Jared Cook, Saints (ADP: 78)

The addition of Emmanuel Sanders and a bigger role for Tre’Quan Smith doesn’t help. Neither does the drafting of Adam Trautman. Cook is more of a borderline TE1 than a reliable one following up a big 2019.

Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers (ADP: 81)

Gronk is ranked as a top TE2 but he’s going like a bona fide TE1, like he’s back in New England with Tom Brady instead of coming off retirement in Tampa Bay. MIke Evans and Chris Godwin will remain the top targets, and both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate can cut into Gronk’s potential production to make this high of a pick in him disappointing.

Noah Fant, Broncos (ADP: 113)

Sutton, Jeudy and now Fant? Yeah, we’re not buying this explosive Denver offense until we see flashes of it. The running game remains a strength, and the offensive line remains a weakness to hurt Lock.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions (ADP: 136)

He’s still hurting from a rookie year that was pretty much lost after Week 1. Nothing against Iowa tight ends, but if he’s not named George Kittle, we kind of don’t want him in 2020.

Jimmy Graham, Bears (ADP: 170)

You’ve got to be kidding me. If he couldn’t make it with Rodgers post-Russell Wilson, he’s not going to make it with Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles when he’s even older, especially with Cole Kmet and Demetrius Harris looming.