2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions: Golf odds, picks

One of the great things about golf betting is that no two tournaments are the same. Every week, the strategy changes depending on the course, the conditions, and the field.

The field for last week’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines was superb. John Rahm, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa were the headliners. Still, the next group of players was a who’s who of up-and-coming elite talents like Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, and eventual winner Max Homa.

Things look very different this week at Pebble Beach.

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Nick Taylor of Canada
Nick Taylor of Canada
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Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland are basically your co-favorites around +1000, but there’s no star power backing them up. Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power, and defending champion Tom Hoge are +2000, while Andrew Putnam is +2500, and Justin Rose, who was around +6000 last week, is +2800.

How things play out in a field like this is anybody’s guess, but we’ve seen longshots like Nick Taylor and Ted Potter Jr. win at this event, so it makes sense to throw a few darts down the board:

2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions

Nick Taylor (+7000, FanDuel)

This a pretty straightforward play, as Taylor clearly is comfortable at Pebble Beach. The 34-year-old Canadian won here in 2020 and has finished inside the top-15 on two other occasions. Unlike at Torrey Pines, length off the tee doesn’t matter so much here, and that’s good news for Taylor, who is one of the shorter hitters in the field.

Nate Lashley (+8000, BetMGM)

Like Taylor, it’s been a bit of feast or famine for Lashley out of the gates in 2023, as the Nebraska native followed up a terrific T7 showing at the Sony Open with a missed cut at the American Express.

But that kind of inconsistency is to be expected out of players in this range, so you’re banking on the Lashley from the Sony Open to show up. And there is reason to believe we get the best version of Lashley this weekend as he finished fifth at this event two years ago and had a great showing when Pebble Beach hosted the 2019 US Open, so he seems to be a good fit on this coastal course.

Nate Lashley of the United States
Nate Lashley of the United States putts on the seventh green during the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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Russell Knox (+8000, BetMGM)

Another shorter hitter with good course history at Pebble Beach, Knox has made four cuts in his last five starts here and sprinkled in three top-15 finishes in that span. A native of Scotland, Knox should be able to handle the conditions if the wind picks up at this coastal course, too.

Additionally, Knox’s game seems to be in decent shape ahead of this weekend. Knox ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2022-23, so if he can find some consistency with the putter he should have plenty of scoring opportunities.