Bears ‘won’t get a king’s ransom for the No. 1 pick’ originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
The Chicago Bears are sitting pretty heading into the offseason.
They have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and they have more cap space than any other NFL team.
And while that is a ton or resources to bolster the roster, general manager Ryan Poles could trade the No. 1 overall pick for even more draft assets.
But the haul might not be as lucrative as Bears fans think. ESPN’s NFL draft analyst Matt Miller “canvased more than a half-dozen scouts, coaches and executives from around the NFL” about realistic potential trades.
What he learned about the potential haul for the Bears was a bit sobering.
“The overwhelming feedback was that the Bears won’t get a king’s ransom for the No. 1 pick but that Indianapolis had the best situation in terms of draft capital and trading the pick out of the NFC,” Miller wrote.
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That’s in stark contrast to what Adam Schefter said the other day, noting the Bears would get “unbelievable offers” to turn that No. 1 pick “into a bevy of future picks that can set up that franchise for years to come.”
The offers Miller outlined were as follows:
Colts’ offer: No. 4 overall, a second-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a 2024 third-rounder
Texans’ offer: No. 2 overall, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a 2024 third-rounder
Panthers’ offer: No. 9 overall, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder, a 2024 first-rounder and a 2024 third-rounder
Some fans are hoping the Bears can potentially nab the Texans No. 2 and No. 12 picks in the NFL Draft for that first-overall selection.
And more fans are even anticipating multiple first-round picks and only the Carolina Panthers’ hypothetical offer includes multiple first-rounders.
In 2017, the Bears sent the San Francisco 49ers a No. 3 overall pick, a third- and fourth-round pick in 2017, and a third-round selection in 2018 to move up to No. 2 in 2017. And the Bears would go on to take Mitchell Trubisky.
Miller’s hypothetical Texans trade mirrors that 2017 trade exactly.
The Colts’ hypothetical offer is nearly identical to that of the Texans, just swapping a second-rounder for that third-rounder.
In 2016, the Los Angeles Rams traded up to No. 1 to draft Jared Goff. The Rams sent the Tennessee Titans the No. 15 pick, two second-round picks, and a third-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft as well as a first- and third-round pick in 2017. The Titans also sent a fourth- and sixth-round selection in the 2016 draft to the Rams, in addition to the No. 1.
The Panthers trade seems to be a more scaled down version of that Rams-Titans trade. Since the Bears wouldn’t be trading out of the top-10 like the Titans in 2016, Miller swapped the two second-round picks for a fourth-round pick.
So if these hypothetical trade offers are what the Bears are deciding between, it comes down to what Poles values.
Take the Colts offer in the hopes of still landing Will Anderson or Jalen Carter? Plus getting a second-round pick to replace the one you traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers for Chase Claypool.
Or do you want to take the Panthers offer to get a second first-round pick in 2024?
If the Bears add some defensive lineman and edge rushers in free agency, the Panthers offer becomes more appealing and Poles could target an offensive tackle or wide receiver with that No. 9 overall pick.
Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. or Georgia’s Broderick Jones all could be available at No. 9. One of those with Braxton Jones on the right side could really shore up the offensive line.
That’s why fans will continue to hear rumors of the Bears entertaining trading Justin Fields and drafting a quarterback. Not necessarily because they will, though Poles left that door open, but to convince teams they might draft a quarterback to force teams to up their offers.
“That was a gift from the football Gods on the final Sunday of the season,” Schefter said. “I cannot believe how the Houston Texans botched that. And it played right into the Bears’ favor.”
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