During the 2023 season, the Pac-12 has an opportunity to silence some of the negative narratives centering on West Coast football by getting a team to the College Football Playoff. It is expected to be of the nation’s deepest conferences this season, which creates high ceilings for some teams while leaving room to fall flat for others. With the new campaign a few months out, we analyzed the best and worse scenarios for each of the league’s 12 teams.
Five programs — Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Utah and Washington — are among the top contenders to win the Pac-12 championship. Of those teams, USC is likely the preseason favorite, and rightfully so, as it returns Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.
The Trojans quarterback has a shot at repeating, but another signal-caller in the Pac-12 might give him a run for his money as Washington senior Michael Penix Jr. looks to build off last season’s historic campaign.
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Keep scrolling for the best and worst case scenario for each team in the Pac-12.
Best case scenario: Double-digit wins with a victory over Washington
Worst case scenario: .500 season
Washington State is flying under the radar ahead of the 2023 season, despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in star signal-caller Cameron Ward. He excelled last season even though his offensive line struggled and Ward could be even better this season. NFL Draft analysts aren’t shy with their love for Ward, a strong-armed quarterback with an ability to escape a collapsing pocket and make a play with his arm or legs.
The Cougars didn’t produce double-digit wins like the three other schools in the Pacific Northwest but they did provide evidence that they could be scary. Wazzu hit the transfer portal to add to its offensive line and could be the sleeper team that Oregon State has been the last two seasons when the fall arrives.
Best case: Win Pac-12
Worst case: Fall short of double-digit win total
It’s the final season of the Pac-12 we’ve grown to know over the last decade. Utah has a chance to do what no team has done by winning the conference championship game for a third-straight year. It all starts with the health of quarterback Cameron Rising, whom the Utes hope to have on the field when opening the season against the Florida Gators at Rice Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.
Week 1 is a realistic timetable for Rising’s return, considering his torn ACL was suffered during the Rose Bowl against Penn State. Once he’s available, Utah’s shot at winning another conference crown becomes highly attainable. The journey might be more challenging than last season as the Pac-12 is deeper than its been in years.
Best case: Bowl eligibility
Worst case: Finish with less than five wins
Taking a step forward in 2023 is easier said than done for Arizona. The Wildcats come off a season in which they showed vast improvement, but so did the majority of the Pac-12. Although the conference is deep, a bowl game should still be the goal for Arizona, which nearly accomplish that last season.
Head coach Jedd Fisch does a terrific job with the program, but there’s been little talk of that so far this offseason. The Wildcats rely heavily on the arm of Jayden de Laura, a talented quarterback that showed promise in his first season in Tucson. Arizona used the transfer portal to build upon a roster that was sneaky-good last season.
Best case: Win five games
Worst case: Have the worst record in the Pac-12
How quickly will Stanford improve under Troy Taylor? The former Sacramento State coach relocated to the Bay Area and looks to to lead one of the Pac-12’s prominent programs back to contention on the West Coast. The Cardinal have work to do before they get to that stage and expectations are low entering Taylor’s inaugural season in Palo Alto.
Through the first few months of the offseason, the favorite to start at quarterback was Ari Patu, but Stanford recently added Justin Lamson, a transfer from Syracuse and a Sacramento native. Lamson could shake things up in the quarterback room and emerge as the starter.
Best case: Win the Pac-12 Championship Game
Worst case: Fall short of double-digit wins
Oregon State flew under the radar last season, but a high-profile quarterback making his way to Corvallis changes things. Plenty of eyes will be on Clemson transfer D.J. Uiagalelei as he looks to raise the Beavers’ ceiling from potential Pac-12 contender to champion.
The Beavers have a running game led by Damien Martinez, who carried the offense in 2022 and looks to have a similar impact again this season. But they now have the flexibility to open things up in the passing game. Oregon State’s defense was why it was able to have such a strong 2022 campaign and it’s a unit that could give OSU an edge over its conference foes.
Best case: Bowl eligibility
Worst case: Have the worst record in Pac-12, including a loss to Stanford
It’s not often a team loses two quarterbacks and an impactful wide receiver through the transfer portal and ends up feeling good about the offense, but that’s the case for California, which is in desperate need of improvement after an ugly 2022 campaign.
The Golden Bears landed TCU transfer quarterback Sam Jackson, who shined in the spring game as he showcased his dual-threat ability. The Golden Bears also added Byron Cardwell to a running back stable consisting of Jaydn Ott, a potential future star in the conference. Cal also boasts wide receiver Jeremiah Hunter, who comes off a season in which he caught 60 passes for 965 yards and five touchdowns.
Best case: Bowl eligibility
Worst case: Finish 10th or worst in the Pac-12 standings
A new head coach bringing in a wave of newcomers through the transfer portal became a recurring theme in the Pac-12, Kenny Dillingham included. Arizona State struggled last season but could be much better this fall with the help of its high-volume class of newcomers. Among the fresh faces is Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne, who is battling for the starting quarterback position after throwing 22 touchdowns to six interceptions with 2,021 yards last season.
The Sun Devils also have incumbent Trenton Bourguet and Jaden Rashada in their quarterback room and all three are competing for QB1 honors. The Sun Devils probably won’t compete for a Pac-12 title, but a bowl game is certainly the expectation.
Best case: Bowl eligibility
Worst case: Have the worst record in Pac-12
Deion Sanders has shape-shifted Colorado since his arrival, landing the top-rated transfer class in the nation. The Buffaloes have some of the Pac-12’s biggest stars on its roster next season, a group headlined by former No. 1 overall prospect Travis Hunter, who followed coach Deion Sanders from Jackson State to Boulder.
The Buffaloes also feature quarterback Shedeur Sanders, a player in position to show his ability under the Power Five lights. The Buffaloes have a schedule that’s far from easy, a slate that we ranked the toughest in the Pac-12. There’s a rebuild underway at Colorado and immediate improvement is expected after going just 1-11 last season.
Best case: Reach the College Football Playoff
Worst case: Fail to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game
After beating Texas in the Alamo Bowl, Washington players made it clear they intended to run it back in 2023. The Huskies returned key playmakers all over the field, none more critical than Heisman Trophy candidate Michael Penix Jr. It was the Huskies’ first season under Kalen DeBoer and the progression from a four-win campaign to an 11-win breakthrough led to a contract extension before the year had even finished.
DeBoer carried the program’s momentum into the offseason and added players through the transfer portal that could impact his high-scoring offense and patch up a defense that fell victim to passing attacks last season. The receiver duo of Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan is dangerous and Ja’Lynn Polk has proven to be capable of big games as well. On the other side of the ball, Washington’s defensive line could wreak havoc again in 2023 as Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui both chose to return to Montlake for another season.
Best case: Reach the College Football Playoff
Worst case: Miss the Pac-12 Championship Game
The word national pundits use to describe Oregon is “talented.” The Ducks, who at one point rattled off eight-straight wins last season, landed the No. 9-rated transfer portal class with former South Carolina EDGE Jordan Burch as the headliner. Oregon added 15 transfers to a roster that featured 29 high school recruits, the No. 9 ranked recruiting class in the country.
A trip to the CFP is very realistic when taking into account the combination of those newcomers with a roster that had the potential to get there last season, along with the return of star quarterback Bo Nix. Oregon should be better than it was in 2022, which is scary because it’s a team that looked bound to reach the conference title game and face USC until a fourth-quarter collapse against Oregon State ended those dreams. There’s been plenty of conversation about Oregon losing offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham to Arizona State but not enough about Dan Lanning having a new level of experience entering his second season as a head coach.
Best case: Win 10 or more games
Worst case: .500 season
What’s the next step for UCLA? On the verge of joining the Big Ten, the Bruins play their final season as a member of the Pac-12 with hazy expectations after entertaining conference championship dreams a year ago. UCLA has done great with adding talent through the transfer portal over the course of the last two offseasons. Still, the uncertainty at quarterback makes for an interesting situation in Westwood. Dorian Thompson-Robinson starred at UCLA and had his best season in 2022, but he’s now a member of the Cleveland Browns. Replacing his production likely won’t happen in the program’s first season since his departure, but there are options capable of success.
The headliner of the QB room is five-star freshman Dante Moore, the Class of 2023’s No. 4-ranked player in the nation. The others are Kent State transfer Collin Schlee and last season’s backup quarterback Ethan Garbers. If either of those three become a star in the Pac-12, UCLA has the necessary tools to become a double-digit-win team.
Best case: Win the national championship
Worst case: Fail to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game
USC winning a national championship isn’t out of the realm of possibility, regardless of what naysayers might proclaim. The Trojans have arguably the nation’s best player in Caleb Williams and an offense that could be even better than the one that helped him land the Heisman Trophy last season. Improvement on the defensive end is vital and USC addressed that by hitting the transfer portal hard to bring in instant-impact newcomers.
Last season nearly saw madness occur when Ohio State came up just short against Georgia in the semifinals, and the Trojans could benefit if they make the Playoff and a non-defensive-centric team like the 2022 Buckeyes can eliminate the back-to-back national championships, assuming Georgia returns to the field.