The College football season a little more than three months away, but FanDuel has us covered with plenty of win total odds. Check out our college football odds series as we give you a Cincinnati football over/under win total prediction and pick.
After a historic run in 2021, Cincinnati finished the 2022 season with a 9-4 record. That is a very respectable record, but the Bearcats had higher expectations for themselves. 2022 was the last season in the AAC for Cincinnati as they will not be competing in the Big 12. They are heading to a harder conference, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against some better competition.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 5.5 wins: +100
Under 5.5 wins: -122
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Why Cincinnati Can Win 5.5 Games
Defense is going to win games in the Big 12 conference. This is a high-scoring conference with a lot of firepower on every team. Cincinnati hired a new defensive coordinator in Bryan Brown. Brown comes from Louisville along with the new head coach. At Louisville, Brown led the defense to an FBS best 50 sacks and they forced the third most turnovers. Louisville held teams to 19.2 points per game in 2022 and that was good for 11th best. The most important stat here is going to be the sacks. Cincinnati put a lot of pressure on the quarterback last season and they return some very good pass rushers, such as Jawon Briggs. However, they did not rush all that much. With Brown now calling defensive plays, you can expect to see the Bearcats in the backfield a lot more. If they can pressure opposing offenses and force mistakes, the Bearcats will have a good first year in the Big 12.
Looking at the schedule, Cincinnati should win two of the first three games. They will need to find four wins elsewhere, but it will not come easy. However, they do not need to play Texas, Texas Tech, TCU or Kansas State. Those are four teams the Bearcats are happy to dodge in their first season in a new conference. They do get to see some familiar faces in Houston and UCF, though. Those are two games Cincinnati has a good shot at winning. Kansas, Baylor, BYU and West Virginia are all games Cincinnati can win, as well. In total, there are eight very winnable games on the Bearcats schedule and they have to win six of them.
Why Cincinnati Can Not Win 5.5 Games
Cincinnati is losing their starting quarterback from 2022. Ben Bryant decided to enter the transfer portal after the spring game and he has since committed to Northwestern. He led the Bearcats to a 9-2 start in 2022 and accumulated 2,732 pass yards with 21 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. Bryant made a massive impact on Cincinnati and after he went down with an injury, the Bearcats finished the season 0-2. Emory Jones will be his replacement, but he was not nearly as good in 2022. At Arizona State, Jones threw for 191.63 yards per game and completed 62 percent of his passes. Jones passed for only seven touchdowns and threw four picks in eight games played last season. Cincinnati is very high on him, but he has not shown the ability to lead a team at a high level. Losing Ben Bryant is a big loss for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati losing Luke Fickell meant that they lost some very good players along with him. New head coach Scott Satterfield is doing his best to revamp the team and bring in some good recruits and transfers, but it is not always easy. With Jones being the starting quarterback, the Bearcats needs to give him weapons. Without a good receiving core and backfield, Jones will not thrive. Satterfield has mentioned that the wide receiver position is an area of need, so Cincinnati will be trying to do just that in the transfer portal. However, as it stands right now, the Bearcats may not have the offensive talent to compete in the big 12.
Final Cincinnati Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Cincinnati has been good for a few years now. They have not had a losing season since 2018. Sattefield has coached at Appalachian State and Cincinnati in his tenure and he has never had less than six wins. No matter where he is at, Satterfield finds a way to build a winning program. It is a new conference for Cincinnati, but I still expect them to make a bowl game this season.
Final Cincinnati Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 5.5 (+100)