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DFS Value Finder: Week 6

DFS Value Finder: Week 6

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

 

Matthew Stafford vs. Jacksonville — QB7 (Fanduel, QB10, $7,300)

 

In previous weeks, this article featured our Expert Rankings on the entire week versus the DFS rankings on only the main slate. With bye weeks beginning to roll in, our Expert Rankings shown here will be adjusted to remove the games not on the main slate. With that change in mind, Stafford sticks out as an obvious value on Fanduel. He faces Jacksonville in a game with a 54.5-point total. That is the second-highest total on the main slate. One contributing factor in that total is the Jaguars Defense. Jacksonville has allowed 8.7 yards per pass attempt this year. That mark is last in the league by a half yard.

 

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jets — QB5 (DraftKings, QB12, $5,900)

Our rankings have Fitzpatrick as a top passer on the week but he’s also an affordable $5,900 on DraftKings. This is despite the Dolphins having one of the highest implied team totals. Vegas has them scoring 28.5 points this week which is third among all main slate teams. Fitzpatrick is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt this year and throwing the ball 34 times per game. He’s also contributing as a runner with at least ten yards and three carries in every game this year.

 

Tom Brady vs. Packers — QB10 (Yahoo, QB14, $5,900)

The matchup between Green Bay and Tampa Bay has a 55-point total, the highest of the main slate. However, it appears as though the Atlanta/Minnesota and Jacksonville/Detroit games will both be more popular in tournaments. That makes both offenses facing off in Green Bay worth attacking. Brady has a reputation as an efficient but conservative passer. That has not been the case this year. The shift to Bruce Arians’ aggressive offense plus an upgrade in weaponry has turned him into a downfield thrower. His 9.8 average depth of target is seventh among quarterbacks with 100 throws this year. Bet on an aggressive Brady in a game that should feature loads of points.

 

Alexander Mattison vs. Atlanta — RB3 (Fanduel, RB8, $7,000)

Fanduel simply missed pricing up Mattison this week. He’s set to be a workhorse back for one game because of the absence of Dalvin Cook. Mattison recorded two carries in the first half of his Week 5 match versus the Seahawks. Cook left at the beginning of the third quarter with a groin injury. From that point on, he notched 18 carries and one catch for more than 100 yards from scrimmage. He’s going to be used in the same role as Cook but is priced far below Cook’s weekly cost.

 

Joe Mixon vs. Colts — RB7 (DraftKings, RB11, $6,200)

DraftKings’ PPR scoring prioritizes pass-catching backs and Mixon has turned into one of the best receivers out of the backfield despite a slow start to the season. After being out-targeted by Giovani Bernard through three games, Mixon has seen 14 looks in the passing game over the past two weeks. Bernard has two targets in the same time span. Mixon has also taken the field for 43 receiving snaps compared to Bernard’s 15 snaps. Mixon’s price is just too low for his newfound role in the passing game.

 

Mike Davis vs. Bears — RB6 (Yahoo, RB11, $23)

It should cost DFS players a Christian McCaffrey price to play Davis and that still isn’t the case on all sites. Yahoo’s RB11 price tag on him is the most egregious. Davis has three starts in place of McCaffrey. He’s averaging 15 carries and 7.3 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. With backup runner Reggie Bonnafon on injured reserve, Trenton Cannon only stole two snaps from Davis last week. Get discount CMC rostered for one more week in DFS before the real thing returns at full price.

 

Adam Thielen vs. Falcons — WR1 (Fanduel, WR6, $7,400)

Thielen is currently ranked as our top pass-catcher on the week because of the certainty he brings to the table. Fanduel has the Falcons receivers, Buccaneers receivers, and Davante Adams priced ahead of him. All of those wideouts are either returning from injury or have a teammate who could reduce their workload returning from injury. Thielen’s 33.1% target share leads all receivers and he doesn’t have a changing situation around him. 

 

Kenny Golladay vs. Jaguars — WR4 (DraftKings, WR15, $6,200)

All of the arguments that apply to Stafford also apply to his top receiving option. Piling on to the reasons Detroit/Jacksonville is worth targeting, both offenses are top-10 in pace. Jacksonville runs at 26.24 seconds per play while Detroit is at a 26.2 clip. Golladay missed two games to start the year. His snaps, targets, and routes all climbed from Week 3 to Week 4. Now he has a bye week of rest under his belt as well. Expect Golladay to be involved early and often in a game that should see both teams scoring at will.

 

Mike Evans vs. Packers — WR4 (Yahoo, WR8, $26)

Evans is a riskier play than the previous two receivers but he’s another piece of the least-popular shootout of the week. The allure of Evans is his touchdown potential. He has operated as the go-to option for the Buccaneers Offense in scoring situations. Evans is ninth in the NFL with five end zone targets. He also has five looks within his opponents 10-yard-line, tied for second among all players. His massive frame and jump-ball abilities make him a nightmare for defenders and give him multi-touchdown upside every week.

 

Jonnu Smith vs. Texans — TE2 (Fanduel, TE4, $5,800)

The tight end position is shockingly thin with most of the premier players off of the main slate. That elevates Smith to one of the best plays of Week 6. Smith’s counting stats aren’t massive (outside of his league-high five scores) but the market share numbers are there for him. He’s seeing 21.6% of the targets and 16% of the air yards in Tennessee. Those marks are No. 4 and No. 11 among all tight ends respectively. The Titans/Texans game has a 53-point total and Tennessee has an implied team total of 28.25 points. Smith has a good chance of keeping up his scoring pace in a shootout with Houston this week.

 

Evan Engram vs. Washington — TE6 (DraftKings, TE8, $4,900)

While Engram has been getting the volume necessary to produce consistently, the quarterback play simply hasn’t allowed him to do so. His 32 targets are fifth for a tight end but he only has one TE1 outing on the year. Washington is 22nd in yards per attempt allowed and is giving up more fantasy points to opposing passers than all but five teams. If Engram is ever going to capitalize on one of the largest roles in the league, it’s going to be this week.

 

Mike Gesicki vs. Jets — TE4 (Yahoo, TE7, $17)

Fantasy players should be looking to tap into Miami’s insanely high team total every way they can. That includes playing Gesicki on a slate with few solid options at tight end. He has more air yards than any other tight end and his 28 targets are top-10 as well. Gesicki should have no problem leveraging his athleticism and volume against a weak Jets Defense.

 

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Christine founded Sports Grind Entertainment with an aim to bring relevant and unaltered Sports news to the general public with a specific view point for each story catered by the team. She is a proficient journalist who holds a reputable portfolio with proficiency in content analysis and research.

About the author

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Christine Watkins

Christine founded Sports Grind Entertainment with an aim to bring relevant and unaltered Sports news to the general public with a specific view point for each story catered by the team. She is a proficient journalist who holds a reputable portfolio with proficiency in content analysis and research.

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