There has been a lot of movement in fantasy football average draft position (ADP) over the last week as drafters react to moves made in the NFL. The next week will see a lot of draft action, so make note of all the transactions before you draft that winning team. Let’s take a look at some of the significant risers and fallers in ADP, such as rookie RBs Zack Moss and D’Andrew Swift, and whether they could be potential bargain sleepers or overpriced hype.
Remember to check the dates on the ADP data you are following. Data from the beginning of draft season can be misleading and cause you to take someone too early or miss out on them. All ADP averages are taken from the NFFC comparing the period of 5/1/20 to 8/26/20 and 8/27/20 to 9/2/20.
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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: ADP Risers
Ryquell Armstead, Devine Ozigbo, Chris Thompson, RBs, Jaguars
With the release of Leonard Fournette, the trio of Ryquell Armstead, Chris Thompson, and Devine Ozigbo have all seen their ADP rise rapidly. The speculation is of a committee, but Armstead holds the lead. Armstead this week has gone to 104.5 from 186 (with the earliest being 52nd); Thompson 136.4 from 211; and Ozigbo 296 to 200. Some will stay away as this puts this backfield into Patriots territory, but those who have drafted them earlier in drafts are set to reap the benefits.
Zack Moss, RB, Bills
When Moss was drafted in April, he was expected to spell Devin Singletary and possibly be the goal-line back. With reports of Singletary getting a case of “fumbleitis,” Moss has made a major move in ADP. His overall ADP since February is 113, but over the last week, it has jumped to 83. If you were expecting to get him in the 10th round, you have to do it in the seventh now. If he does take over for Singletary, he will be a strong RB3/4; if he doesn’t, you’re overpaying at this price.
Joshua Kelley, RB, Chargers
Kelley was a fourth-round pick in the 2020 draft out of UCLA and was expected to compete with Justin Jackson to back up Austin Ekeler. Reports out of Chargers camp has Kelley practicing with the first team on goal-line drills. He has seemingly not only beaten out Jackson but may even steal some touches from Ekeler. His ADP has gone to 162 over the last week and is now being drafted ahead of Jackson. As a 14th-round selection, Kelley can add depth to your RB position and be a viable bye-week/injury fill-in.
Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins
Williams missed a significant amount of the season last year after tearing his ACL. Recovered, he has been impressing those watching in Miami. Fantasy football owners are noticing and have moved him up almost two rounds in the last week. In the NFFC he has gone as early as 86th with an ADP of 121. He could potentially outproduce DeVante Parker, who is being drafted five rounds earlier
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: ADP Fallers
Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles
Last week I reported that all of the top-10 QBs were falling in ADP. Wentz continues to tumble as his offensive line took another hit losing LT Andre Dillard, and WR Jalen Reagor is expected to miss the first month because a shoulder injury. From 8/20-27 Wentz’s ADP was 96.9 and it has fallen to 107.7 over the last week. The Eagles and Wentz overcame a ton of injuries last season to their WR corps and, at times, their OL. This could be a buying opportunity in Philadelphia.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions
Swift is the heralded rookie for the Lions out of Georgia. He is expected to compete with Kerryon Johnson for the RB1 role, but a legt injury has sidelined him for almost two weeks. This has led to his fall down the draft board. It’s been difficult for rookies this season with the lack of OTAs and preseason games, but missing two weeks of training camp might cause Swift to fall back a bit in the rotation. He’s fallen back by almost a round going from 52 to 61. That’s a lot of draft capital on a rookie with an injury. Take at your own risk.
Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
Williams has the talent to be a premier WR in the NFL but has not produced on a consistent basis. Now with a shoulder injury expecting to sideline him for at least week one, he is someone that is being targeted as a late-round depth pick. With Philip Rivers off to Indianapolis and Tyrod Taylor taking over, Williams’ value has dropped. He has dropped 10 spots over the last week as compared to the full drafting season going from 125 to 135. Justin Jefferson and Golden Tate are two WRs who are in the same ADP range and may be more worthy of your pick at that point in the draft.