How Derek Carr signing impacts Saints’ Super Bowl odds

A few weeks ago, it felt like a foregone conclusion that Derek Carr would sign with the Saints after being cut by the Raiders in mid-February.

On Monday, that became a reality.

New Orleans inked its new starter to a four-year deal, per multiple reports, after a weeks-long courtship that saw the former Raiders quarterback linked to the Saints, Panthers, and Jets ahead of next week’s start of NFL free agency.

Ultimately, the longtime Raider found a new home in the Big Easy – though it hardly moved the needle in the Super Bowl market, with oddsmakers leaving the Saints’ odds unchanged after Monday’s news.

2023-24 Super Bowl odds after Derek Carr signing

(via BetMGM)

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Buffalo Bills +850
San Francisco 49ers +850
Cincinnati Bengals +900
Philadelphia Eagles +900
Baltimore Ravens +1800
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Los Angeles Chargers +2000
Detroit Lions +2500
Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
New York Jets +2500
Los Angeles Rams +3000
Miami Dolphins +3500
Denver Broncos +3500
Green Bay Packers +4000
Cleveland Browns +4000
Las Vegas Raiders +4000
New Orleans Saints +4000
New York Giants +4000
Chicago Bears +5000
New England Patriots +6000
Pittsburgh Steelers +6000
Carolina Panthers +6600
Seattle Seahawks +6600
Washington Commanders +6600
Atlanta Falcons +8000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
Tennessee Titans +8000
Arizona Cardinals +15000
Indianapolis Colts +15000
Houston Texans +20000
(via BetMGM)

Since shortly after the odds opened in February, New Orleans has been 40/1 to win it all, mainly because of the continued smoke surrounding a potential Carr coup.

Now it’s official: the four-time Pro Bowler reunites with head coach Dennis Allen, who coached the Raiders when they drafted Carr in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft.

The Jets’ odds were similarly unchanged at 25/1 despite Carr being among the top quarterback targets for the team ahead of this offseason.

The top option remains four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, and the team was unwilling to meet Carr’s timeline with the Packers star still on the table, per Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer.

The biggest loser from Monday’s news is Carolina, at least according to oddsmakers.

The Panthers were dealing around 50/1 at most books entering the week but could be had at 66/1 at BetMGM, with their perceived top free-agent target off the board.

Derek Carr
Getty Images

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That makes it all the more likely that Frank Reich and co. trade up from the ninth pick in next month’s draft to secure one of the top quarterback prospects – even if it means a move for No. 1.

As of Monday, Carr is the only quarterback in the NFC South with more than four starts –other than his teammate, Jameis Winston, who is likely to be a cap casualty for New Orleans to clear room for its new starter.