While much of the betting attention is paid to conventional spread and total plays, many bettors will look for profitable teaser opportunities on Saturday and Sunday in the NFL divisional round.
Teasers are incredibly popular with recreational bettors. They are similar to a parlay in that they combine multiple bets into the same bet — but they are also quite different. In a teaser, bettors can adjust the spread or total in their favor to get more desirable numbers, typically by six points. This is known as teasing “up” or “down.” All of the legs in the teaser must win in order for you to win your teaser.
Sharp NFL bettors target teasers also, but they are much more disciplined and selective. Pros target the two-team, six-point teaser, which can be bet at roughly -120 odds. While public bettors look for the biggest spreads of the weekend and blindly tease down favorites, pros focus on teasing through key numbers. When teasing, the goal is to pass through multiple key numbers (3, 7, 10) that are based on the most common methods of scoring.
The top teaser opportunity this weekend arguably is Ravens +3 to +9 because it allows you to get above and pass through the two biggest key numbers (3 and 7). We’ve also seen some respected money hit Baltimore, dropping the line from +3 to +2.5. This means you are on the side of sharp action.
Ravens-Bills Under 55.5 (up from 49.5): Key numbers for totals aren’t nearly as important as key numbers for spreads. But we’ve seen some sharp money hit this Under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49.5. Weather could play a factor here. The current forecast calls for low 30s, 15-20 mph winds and possibly some snow.
Rams +6.5 to +12.5: We’ve seen some sharp reverse line movement hit Los Angeles, dropping the Rams from +7 to +6.5. By teasing the Rams up to +12.5, you are passing through the key numbers of 7 and 10. The public will surely tease down the Packers from -6.5 to -0.5. The books will be rooting for a Rams win to kill those public Green Bay teasers.
Rams-Packers Under 51.5 (up from 45.5): Respected money has hit this Under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for low 30s at Lambeau with 10 mph winds. The Rams are 12-5 to the Under this season.
Browns +10 to +16: This spread has remained frozen at Chiefs -10 all week. But we are starting to see the wiseguys lean toward Cleveland, with the +10 being juiced up to -115. This signals a possible fall to 9.5. By teasing the Browns to +16 you can go through the key number of 14.
Browns-Chiefs Over 51.5 (down from 57.5): We’ve seen an overload of both Pro and Joe money hammer this Over, driving it up from 54.5 to 57.5. The weather at Arrowhead — overcast and high 30s — shouldn’t be an issue. The Browns are 10-7 to the Over this season.
Buccaneers +3 to +9: Sharp money has gotten down hard on Tampa, moving the Bucs from +4 to +3. By taking the Bucs to +9 you can pass through the key number of 7. Right now the Saints -3 is being juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise back to -3.5. If you wait, you could take the +3.5 to +9.5.
Bucs-Saints Over 45.5 (down from 51.5): Pros and Joes have taken a liking to this over, driving it up from 50 to 51.5. This game will also be played in a dome. Over the past decade, dome playoff Overs are roughly 65 percent.