Experts handicap today’s 146th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Post time is approximately 7:01 p.m.
New York Post handicapper
Authentic: Tiz an unwritten Law that states do not bet the favorite at 3-5. A lot of pieces have to fall into place but … if John Velazquez can get Bob Baffert’s colt free on the lead … if he can clock reasonable fractions … if he can get the distance … and if Tiz The Law doesn’t bring his “A” game … well just maybe.
Tiz The Law: Then again … the Belmont Stakes winner may be able to win the second(!) jewel with his “B” game. Barclay Tagg’s stalker has proven to be a cut above this 3-year-old crop and his acceleration turning for home has left the competition in Manny Franco’s rear-view mirror. And he’s proven at the distance.
Honor A.P.: The Santa Anita Derby winner was upset by the speedy Thousand Words at Del Mar. The second choice on the morning line will have to outkick Tiz the Law. Tall order, but crafty vet Mike Smith knows how to “Run for the Roses.” Completes the old 18-17-16 trifecta.
VSiN’s resident oddsmaker
Honor A.P.: Bumped at the start of the Shared Belief; probably cost him that race. He’s game and steady.
Tiz The Law: Have to respect him as the most versatile runner in the race.
Thousand Words: Ran his best speed figure last time out at 1 1/16 miles wiring the field, which included Honor A.P.
VSiN. Host of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Tiz the Law: If you have to ask why, first you need to know a horse has four legs …
Thousand Words: Inscrutable. He looked like he was back to his old self in his last race.
Honor A.P.: He shows up for big races. His last race was not big.
The King of Vero
The King of Vero is a two-time qualifier for the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), the richest and most prestigious tournament for horseplayers in the world. Here is his recommended betting strategy for today’s Derby:
#17 Tiz The Law: On paper, he cannot lose and I really do not see him losing either. He is simply the best horse in the field. He has won at the distance and he is the fastest. However, who wants to play favorites? So I am looking elsewhere.
#16 Honor A.P.: He has done little wrong. He will run all day long and has the Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard. I think he is ready and will put up a huge race.
#2 Max Player: He was turned over from Linda Rice to Steve Asmussen and he put a sub minute 5 furlong work two back, which to me says he is going to try and put the horse into the race earlier than he has in past. He has never finished worst than third, including twice against Tiz the Law.
#7 Money Moves: He is a lightly raced horse and is fresh. Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. He will hit the board.
King of Vero plays
#16 Honor A.P.
#17 Tiz the Law
#2 Max Player
#7 Money Moves
$135 (actually 137.60) Betting strategy
$10 WIN 16 = $10
$10 PLACE 16 = $10
$2 EXACTA 16 / 2-7-17 = $6
$2 EXACTA 2-7-17 / 16 = $6
$.50c TRIFECTA BOX 2-7-16-17 = $12
$.50c TRIFECTA 2-16-17 / 2-7-16-17 / 2-3-5-7-10-12-13-16-17-18= $36.00
.10c Superfecta 2-16-17 / 2-7-16-17 / 2-3-5-7-10-12-13-16-17-18 / 2-3-5-7-8-10-12-13-16-17-18 =$57.60
Note: Churchill Downs is offering .10c Superfectas this year. Ten cents!