Florida State travels to No. 12 Miami on Saturday (7:30 p.m., ABC) in an ACC matchup of in-state rivals on two different trajectories.
The Seminoles (0-1) had an off week after opening the season with a 16-13 loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12. FSU coach Mike Norvell tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be on the sideline this week. Chris Thomsen will assume coaching duties for the Seminoles.
The Hurricanes (2-0) are coming off their second impressive performance in as many weeks. Quarterback D’Eriq King works well within offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee’s new-look offense, and second-year coach Manny Diaz has a talented team vying to compete for the ACC championship.
This isn’t the top-10 rivalry of yesterday, but it should be a heated contest just the same. Here’s everything you need to know about the FSU-Miami matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Miami vs. Florida State odds
Spread: Miami by 11
Point spread odds: Miami -110, Florida State -110
Miami vs. Florida State all-time series
The Hurricanes lead the all-time series in this rivalry 34-30. Miami won the past three meetings after breaking Florida State’s seven-game win streak in the rivalry from 2010 to 2016.
This used to be a regular top-10 matchup in the 1990s and 2000s, but those times have changed. Miami is the only team ranked in this matchup, and the Hurricanes are 6-0 against the Seminoles when that’s the case.
MORE: Week 4 picks against the spread
Three trends to know
— The Hurricanes are 2-0 ATS as a favorite this season. Miami finished 3-7 ATS as a favorite in 2019.
— Florida State is 0-1 ATS this season and finished 1-2-1 ATS as an away underdog last season.
— Miami has won the past three meetings by a combined total of 22 points. Five of the past six contests have been decided by single digits.
Three things to watch
— James Blackman vs. The “Turnover Chain.” FSU had three turnovers in the opener on an interception and a pair of fumbles. Blackman completed 23 of 43 passes and was harassed for much of the game. He has an excellent receiver in junior Tamorrion Terry, but will Blackman have enough time to push the ball down the field in the vertical passing game while avoiding turnovers?
— Miami’s aggressive defense. The Hurricanes watched All-American defensive end Greg Rousseau opt out before the season started, but they haven’t missed a beat. Miami has 16 tackles for loss in two games, and Temple transfer Quincy Roche leads the team with 3.5. That’s going to be tough for FSU’s rushing attack to contend with given that the Seminoles averaged 3.1 yards per rush in the opener.
— Kickers. Hey, this rivalry is steeped in missed kicks. FSU’s Parker Grauthaus hit two field goals in the opener, but both kicks were inside 40 yards. Miami’s Jose Borregales is a perfect 5 of 5 this season, including three field goals of 40 yards or more. The kickers can’t give away any points in this one.
Stat that matters
That’s been a double-sided magic number for the Hurricanes through two games. King averages 10.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and he has yet to throw an interception. Part of that is because of game-breaking running back Cam’Ron Harris, who averages 10.3 yards per rushing attempt through two games. Harris broke a 66-yard TD in Week 1 against UAB and a 75-yard TD against Louisville in Week 2. If FSU gives up big plays in the running game, then it’s going to be a long night.
FSU needed the bye week, and the high emotions to the rivalry should factor in. It’s not a guarantee, however. Miami led 17-3 after one half in a 27-10 victory last season. King and Harris will settle in before halftime, and FSU will be forced to play catch-up in the second half. A late turnover seals Miami’s fourth straight victory in the series. That sets up a bye week before a shot at No. 1 Clemson on Oct. 10.
Miami 31, Florida State 19