MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for May 24

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s early slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Joey Meneses ($3,000): First Base, Washington Nationals

Joey Meneses has had a productive May. Through 19 games, the Washington Nationals first baseman has posted a .423 slugging percentage with 14 RBI and nine runs scored. More importantly, we expect him to continue to deliver Wednesday against the San Diego Padres.

Meneses has reserved some of his best performances for more recently. Since May 15, the 31-year-old has had a three and a four-hit performance while going 9-for-25 at the plate. Moreover, five of those hits have gone for extra bases, and he’s driven in six. Based on our projections, we’re anticipating Meneses maintains that play against Ryan Weathers.

Weathers doesn’t hide anything with his pitches, generating a lot of contact and relying on solid defense behind him. The way Meneses is swatting the ball right now, there’s nothing his Padres teammates can do to keep him from reaching his fantasy ceiling.

Jean Segura ($3,400): Third Base, Miami Marlins

This season hasn’t been Jean Segura‘s finest moment. The two-time All-Star is well off his usual output and fantasy production. Nevertheless, the Miami Marlins’ third baseman rates as one of the best value picks on the docket and should snap out of his recent three-game hitless drought at Coors Field.

Irrespective of venue, Segura is a natural progression candidate over the coming weeks. The 33-year-old is well off his modest expected slugging percentage of .343, currently swatting a disappointing .229. The dip in production has come despite a sustained hard-hit rate. Segura has a 37.0% benchmark this season, matching his most productive at-bats from the past few seasons.

In his lone start this season, Karl Kauffman was a disaster. The 25-year-old gave up five runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings pitched. Sadly, that was in the pitcher-friendly confines of Globe Life Field. He’s in for a rude awakening at Coors, and Segura won’t make him feel at home.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks


Sandy Alcantara ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies

Pitching at Coors Field appears to be negatively impacting Sandy Alcantara‘s salary on Wednesday’s main slate. The Marlins’ ace is usually priced in the $10,000 range, but he enters the National League tilt against the Rockies at a discounted rate. Still, we like him to maintain his current form and surpass the implied value of his salary.

Alcantara leads our median and ceiling projections on the evening slate, and rightfully so. The reigning Cy Young winner continues to dazzle on the mound, ranking in the 88th percentile in chase rate and 96th percentile in fastball velocity. Further, Alcantara has a 27.1% whiff rate or better on three of his four pitches, mixing all his offerings to keep batters guessing at the dish.

It’s worth noting that Alcantara isn’t as bad as his record or ERA implies. He continues to assert himself on the mound with above-average metrics. Alcantara’s expected ERA is lower than the actual, and his barrel, whiff, and walk rates are above-average.

This is the perfect time to buy low on Alcantara. He’s poised for progression and should have no problems corraling an underwhelming Rockies squad. We’re leaning into our algorithm and expecting Alcantara to deliver at Coors Field.


Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals

It hasn’t been a straight shot back to fantasy relevancy, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is starting to be a more reliable producer. The Padres’ outfielder, still clutching to his shortstop designation, has improved his metrics this month. We’re betting that the upward trend continues against the Nats.

The two-time Silver Slugger has improved his slugging and on-base percentage month-over-month, posting respective marks of .494 and .314 in May. This month, eight of his 12 base hits have gone for extra bases, including three doubles and five long fly balls. In reconciling underlying metrics with production, ongoing success should be expected.

Tatis Jr. remains below his career averages in virtually every advanced category. The former All-Star is below normal ranges in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and expected slugging percentage. Still, he’s been progressing over his recent sample, and that climb should continue against Trevor Williams.

Williams ranks among the bottom 11% of pitchers in expected slugging percentage and 7% in barrel rate. That sets up Tatis Jr. and his Padres teammates for a strong showing at Nationals Park.

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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.


Kodai Senga ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field can be a challenging venue to conquer, but we have the utmost confidence in Kodai Senga and his ghost forkball against the Chicago Cubs. Using our aggregate modeling, Senga rates as one of the top pitchers available on today’s schedule.

Of course, Senga has the metrics to back up his lofty projections. The Japanese national induces a lot of swings and misses with his six-pitch arsenal. Although he relies most heavily on four offerings, Senga occasionally mixes a slider and curveball to keep batters on their toes. Still, his whiff rate is better than 21.0% on all six pitches, including a mind-numbing 58.8% on his forkball.

Naturally, Senga has used that pitch to his advantage all season. He sits among the top 20% of pitchers in strikeout rate, punching out batters 29.4% of the time. Predictably, this has inflated his K/9 rate to 11.5 K/9.

Considering his overpowering stuff, it’s not surprising to see Senga near the top of our projections. We expect him to live up to the hype again and reach his fantasy ceiling against the Cubs.


Juan Soto ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals

According to our Expected Runs projections, the Padres should end the night as one of the most productive teams. We’ve discussed the merits of including Tatis Jr, but Juan Soto is another batter worth targeting.

Soto is an analytics darling. The NL MVP candidate ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate and 100th percentile in walk percentage, contributing to a .403 expected weighted on-base average. However, we also can’t look past his power stroke, as Soto’s generating a 15.4% barrel rate and .530 expected slugging percentage, lending itself to monster fantasy performances.

He’s translated that analytics success into tangible on-field results. Three of Soto’s last nine hits have left the park, and he’s got ten doubles and four dingers so far this month. His salary on either platform doesn’t accurately reflect his true potential, and we expect Soto to deliver another top-tier performance against the Nationals.

Aaron Judge ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Surprise, surprise, Aaron Judge once again ranks as one of the best hitters available. But considering his current form, we’re not passing him up on the eight-game docket.

Judge has been on an absolute tear since returning from injury. The reigning AL MVP has recorded 18 hits, including eight homers and three doubles over his last 13 outings. As expected, that’s yielded the lion’s share of run production for the New York Yankees, with Judge totaling 19 RBI and 14 runs scored over that stretch.

The scariest part of this sample is that we have not yet seen Judge reach his peak. The three-time Silver Slugger remains below his .754 expected slugging percentage and last year’s actual benchmark of .686, suggesting more of the same is on the horizon.

A healthy mix of top producers and value picks is available on tonight’s slate. Whatever your preference is, make sure Judge is a part of your plans.