We’ve got many new matchups starting tonight in the MLB. That should make for an interesting slate!
That said, I’ve added multiple props I’ll be playing tonight. There’s so much value on the board with all 30 teams playing.
Let’s get right to it and earn some profit!
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Friday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees
It’ll be Joe Musgrove on the mound for the Padres. Musgrove has a 6.06 xFIP over the last 30 days and has allowed 23% of line drives while earning just 29.5% of ground balls in that time frame.
His last 33 righties faced have hit a .481 wOBA and ISO of .345. Musgrove has earned just 15.2% of strikeouts against righties and is giving up more than 29% of line drives in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is a righty, hitting a .521 ISO and wOBA of .544 over his last 63 plate appearances. That’s a large enough sample size for Judge. He’s smashing right-handed pitching right now. Let’s take him to get Over 1.5 total bases. Don’t be surprised if he smashes a home run, either.
Bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Jon Gray will get the call for the Rangers tonight. He currently has a 4.76 xFIP over the last 30 days. During this time, he’s allowed over 28% of line drives and has earned under 35% of ground balls. He’s kept walks down but has only struck out 18.5% of batters.
So far, Gray has kept extra-base hits down against both sides of the plate. But he’s allowing 47.8% of hard contact and taking on an Orioles projected lineup that strikes out only 18.1% of the time against righties over the last 30 days.
There are five batters in the Orioles lineup striking out under 19% of the time against righties. Three of those batters have struck out fewer than 10% of the time against righties in the last month.
Take Gray to go Under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money.
Bet: Jon Gray Under 4.5 Ks (+108)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves will give Jared Shuster another shot in the rotation. He’s got a 4.81 xFIP in his last 40 plate appearances. But in those 40 plate appearances, he’s struck out 25% of batters.
The lefty has pitched well against righties. Righties hit a .169 wOBA and ISO of .103 against Shuster over the last month. He’s just struggled a little bit with lefties early on. However, the Phillies should have five righties in the lineup. Philadelphia has also struck out 25.9% of the time against lefties over the last month using their projected lineup.
The Phillies have also hit a .264 wOBA in the last month, which is awful. Philadelphia has five batters striking out at least 30.3% of the time against lefties. I like Shuster’s chances of earning high strikeouts tonight.
Bet: Jared Shuster Over 4.5 Ks (-134)
Check out our other best bets for Friday:
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