MLB value plays for Friday, May 26
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Rangers vs. Orioles Total 8.5. Greg’s Total 9.2.
The Rangers lead the league in runs per game with 6.3 while the Orioles are sixth with 5.1 runs per game. Rangers starter Jon Gray has a 3.02 ERA, but his FIP is 4.82 with his strikeouts per nine innings rate going from 9.5 last season to 6.8. The Rangers bullpen has the worst ERA in the league in the past 30 days at 7.00. Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez has a 6.21 ERA with 3.9 walks and 2.1 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Padres (-125) vs. Yankees. Greg’s Line: Yankees -119.
The Yankees give Randy Vasquez his first career start. Vasquez’s minor league ERA is 4.85, but he enters having allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts at AAA. The Yankees back him up with a bullpen that has the best ERA in baseball and an offense that has scored at least four runs in 19 of their last 23 games. They get to face Padres starter Joe Musgrove, who has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts with an ERA of 6.75 with 2.3 home runs per nine innings allowed this season.
Nationals vs. Royals (-125). Greg’s Line: Nationals -106.
The Royals are 0-10 in Jordan Lyles’ starts this season, with nine of those losses being by at least two runs. Lyles has allowed at least four runs in nine straight starts. The Nationals are 4-3 in Patrick Corbin’s last seven starts with Corbin allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of those starts. The Nationals lead the National League in road batting average.
Marlins vs. Angels Total 8.5. Greg’s Total 7.9.
Angels starter Reid Detmers’ 0-3 record and 4.87 ERA do not speak to how he’s pitched this season. His FIP is 3.42, and he gets 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings. The Marlins are averaging the fewest runs per game of any National League team. They send Jesus Luzardo to the mound, who is getting 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts this season: