Phillies vs. Braves Odds
The Phillies will look to further their momentum after an impressive five-run comeback victory against the Diamondbacks with a victory against the division-leading Braves on Thursday night in Atlanta.
Aaron Nola, who has pitched to a 4.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 62 and 2/3 innings, takes the mound tonight for Philadelphia. Atlanta will counter with Dylan Dodd, who has pitched to a 6.46 ERA in 15 and 1/3 innings to start his MLB career.
Philadelphia’s middling offensive play has played a significant role in its disappointing 23-26 record. The Phillies have batted to a 15th-best team wRC+ of 115 with a .321 wOBA, which is certainly disappointing considering their talent.
The Phillies have been even worse against left-handed pitching, with an 83 wRC+ and .286 wOBA.
Trea Turner’s poor start to the season is a big reason why the Phillies have been so dreadful versus left-handed pitching. He’s batted .198 versus lefties in 2023, which is a huge letdown compared to averaging .298 and slugging .542 in 2022.
Nonetheless, Turner came in clutch with a crucial two-run homer to tie yesterday’s game in the ninth. One swing certainly does not fix all of his issues, but if he can get going offensively at a level anywhere near what the Phillies expected, it would offer a large boost.
Aaron Nola has been solid to start the campaign. A decrease in his Strikeout Rate has been a concern, as he has struck out just 21.3% of batters faced so far.
However, Nola owns a 3.66 xERA and should see some positive regression in terms of his Strand Rate. He has also given up at least one home run in six straight starts and could clean things up on that front somewhat moving forwards.
It is also worth noting that Nola’s 4.10 ERA in May is drastically better than it sounds upon review of the competition and ballpark conditions faced.
Dylan Dodd has not fared well in his opening 15 innings in the Majors. He has pitched to an xERA of 7.27 and has struck out just 10% of batters with stuff that is rating fairly poorly. In 27 Triple-A innings with Gwinnett this season, he owns a 6.67 ERA.
The Braves have hit to drastically worse splits versus right-handed pitching this season. They are the top side in the NL versus lefties but have hit to a 96 wRC+ against righties with a .319 wOBA. The talent on hand dictates they could improve over time, but the drastic difference in potency is worth considering.
Phillies vs. Braves Betting Pick
Philadelphia’s offense could be slightly undervalued in the coming weeks, and this could be somewhat of a buy-low opportunity. They will never be what the Braves are on that front, but the gap should be less drastic in games from here on out.
Nola offers the Phillies a significant starting pitching edge over Dodd. It’s easy to feel confident about where his game is trending entering this one, and his stuff still dictates he should be a well above average option.
Philly deserves to be a favorite here, and I believe we have value betting them down to -115.
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