Who will win vs. who should win

Oscars night is here, and award-season behemoth “Everything Everywhere All At Once” looks like a shoo-in for Best Picture — but everything everywhere else this year is anybody’s guess. Here, Post critic Johnny Oleksinski picks who will win and who should win at the 2023 Academy Awards Sunday March 12 at 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

Best Picture

Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

The popular, innovative and genre-bending film from A24 has won the top prizes at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards and Writers Guild Awards. Whew. Only four other films in history have swept that important quartet and all of them went onto win Best Picture.

Stephanie Hsu, Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan in "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Stephanie Hsu, Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan (left to right) in “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Should Win: “The Fabelmans” 

Steven Spielberg’s touching look back on his childhood went from early frontrunner to having next-to-no shot at winning. For me, though, it was the emotional highlight of the year. 

“All Quiet on the Western Front“

“Avatar: The Way of Water“

“The Banshees of Inisherin“



“Top Gun: Maverick“

“Triangle of Sadness“

“Women Talking”

Best Director

Will Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

With these two smart, young filmmakers (below), the word “visionary” has been thrown around a lot — for good reason. They won both the Directors Guild Award and the Critics Choice Award for Best Director.

Directors Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” directors Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan
Getty Images

Should Win: Todd Field, “Tár”

Frankly, I’d give it to James Cameron for “Avatar: Way of Water,” but he’s not nominated. Field, though, created a painstakingly detailed, piercingly relevant thriller that was hard not to talk about (if you saw it, anyway).

Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”

Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness”

Best Actress

Will Win, Should Win: Cate Blanchett, “Tár”

Yes, she’s already won twice. But — dammit — Blanchett is doing her best work ever as a brilliant-but-complicated conductor. 

Cate Blanchett in “Tár”
Cate Blanchett in “Tár”
Focus Features

Ana de Armas, “Blonde”

Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”

Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”

Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Best Actor

Will Win, Should Win: Austin Butler, “Elvis”

Brendan Fraser’s comeback in “The Whale” has received well-deserved acclaim, but Butler’s Presley is simply a marvel. Spanning decades without showboating, his movie is much more popular across the board than closest rival Fraser’s. And he’s been charming voters all over the world. 

Austin Butler
Austin Butler
AFP via Getty Images

Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”

Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”

Bill Nighy, “Living”

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

The beloved actor, who got his start as Short Round in “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,” has delivered the most moving speeches all season long — because he’s won just about every award he’s been up for.

Ke Huy Quan
Ke Huy Quan

Should Win: Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

As a doofus neighbor, Keoghan was hilarious and devastating.

Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”

Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Bassett was bulldozing through award season before Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere”) won at the SAGs a couple weeks ago. The first-time Best Supporting Actress nominee will bounce back here.

Angela Bassett in "Wakanda Forever"
Angela Bassett in “Wakanda Forever”
©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection

Should Win: Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

It’s a shame the fight has been Bassett vs. Curtis, because the breakout star of this category is Hsu as both Yeoh’s daughter and a multiverse villain.

Hong Chau, “The Whale”

Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”

Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Best International Feature Film 

Will Win, Should Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) 

The brutal World War I epic made waves in Europe and the US thanks to a widely-watched Netflix debut.

Felix Kammerer in "All Quiet on the Western Front
Felix Kammerer in “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina) 

“Close” (Belgium)

“EO” (Poland) 

“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) 

Best Original Song

Will Win, Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” music by M.M. Keeravaani; lyrics by Chandrabose  

Yeah, Rihanna and Lady Gaga tunes are in the mix — but the lively “Naatu Naatu” brings to mind past winner “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire.” Let’s hope for a big Bollywood performance at the ceremony.

M.M. Keeravaani

“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” music and lyrics by Diane Warren

“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop

“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler

“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: “Women Talking,” Sarah Polley

Also nominated for Best Picture, many feel the Amish-country drama (below) got short shrift in the acting and directing categories. It’ll be acknowledged here instead.

Jessie Buckley and Judith Ivey in "Women Talking"
Jessie Buckley in “Women Talking.”

Should Win: “Living,”  Kazuo Ishiguro

Not enough people watched the excellent “Living,” a shrewd adaptation of Akira Kurosawa’s “Ikuru.” 

“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Rian Johnson

“Top Gun: Maverick,” Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

Weird and clever, “Everything Everywhere” did the multiverse better than Marvel ever has.

Jamie Lee Curtis and Michelle Yeoh in "Everything Everywhere All At Once"
Jamie Lee Curtis (left) and Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

Should Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh

Nobody today writes with the humor or wit of McDonagh.

“The Fabelmans,” Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

“Tár,” Todd Field

“Triangle of Sadness,” Ruben Östlund

Best Animated Feature Film 

Will Win, Should Win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” 

It’s not only excellent, it’s the only realistic option.

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”

“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” 

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” 

“The Sea Beast” 

“Turning Red”